The Reasoning Guide

Fallacies break arguments; biases skew judgment. One clean, linkable page for each — what it looks like, why it goes wrong, and how to respond well.

Logical Fallacies

All 38 fallacies →

Broken arguments — what they look like, why the reasoning fails, and how to respond.

Cognitive Biases

All 20 biases →

The mind's systematic errors — every entry backed by replicated evidence.

Anchoring

The first number you encounter pulls your estimate toward it — even when that number is arbitrary, irrelevant, or obviously too high or too low.

Judgment

Confirmation Bias

The tendency to seek out, favor, and remember information that supports what you already believe — and to overlook or discount whatever cuts against it.

Evidence

Framing Effect

Deciding differently depending on whether the same option is described as a gain or a loss. The facts don't change — the wording does, and the choice follows the wording.

Judgment

Fundamental Attribution Error

Explaining other people's behavior by their character while underrating the power of their situation: the driver who cut you off is a jerk, never someone rushing to a hospital.

Social

Halo Effect

Letting one appealing trait — looks, confidence, warmth, success — color everything else you believe about a person, brand, or idea. One bad trait does the same in reverse.

Social

Hindsight Bias

Once you know how something turned out, it feels like you saw it coming all along — the outcome quietly rewrites how predictable the past seems.

Judgment

Illusory Truth Effect

The tendency to judge a claim as more likely true simply because you've heard it before — repetition, not evidence, does the persuading.

Evidence

Sunk Cost Fallacy

Sticking with a failing course of action because of what you've already put into it — money, years, effort — even though nothing you do next can recover what's spent.

Decision

Survivorship Bias

Judging a group by its visible successes because the failures never made it into view — when the missing cases carry the real lesson.

Evidence